Seattle Kraken Roster Prediction

Predicting Seattle's Expansion picks

With all of the protection lists submitted by teams this weekend, I took a look at a few scenarios for who might be picked.

Did not assume any trades that would be made by Seattle, though those are definitely coming, based on what happened last year. Instead, I’m looking at who would maximize cap dollar usage on a goals-above-replacement (GAR) per $ spent on cap basis.

Can start this off by applying a GAR/$ for each of the exposed players. This is easy to do for 2021-2022, but gets difficult as we start to make our way down the aging curve for different players for the length of their contract. With a flat-cap world, the one thing you do not want to do if you’re Seattle is saddle yourself with long-term cap-eating contracts. While I did want to keep room for UFA hunting this summer, I also think this is the time to take some gambles on short-term contracts that are large numbers for 2021-2022 only. The team I selected has a cap hit of $70.9M, though I would expect some players to be dealt, particularly on the back end, to leave room for some free agent signings or trades this summer (dare to dream).

Where this comes into play / most controversial picks

I’ve opted for 27 year-old Colton Sissons, signed to a reasonable $2.86M cap hit through 2026, rather than 30 year-old Matt Duchene at $8M also through 2026.

I want to take a waiver on Max Domi and see what he can do for one year, playing for a new contract, even though he’s owed $5.3M this year. I considered Kevin Stenlund, upcoming RFA in 2022 at just under $900k but the potential reward with Domi is just too high to pass up, even though his last 2 seasons have been at a 45 point pace, rather than his 72 point season in 2018-19 in Montreal. There are too many good Defensive options out there to go with Dean Kukan ($1.65M and a UFA in 2022), in my opinion - but he’d obviously be next on the board for the Kraken if they plan to deal away defensemen.

Speaking of Montreal… I tried finding a way to put Carey Price in net on this team, and I just do not see a way. It would completely go against the idea of not saddling this team with long term problematic contracts. Other than price, I felt the choice was between Drouin at forward or Brett Kulak on the back end. I opted for Kulak - I think we only have space for one $5M+ problematic Montreal center-wing forward. Kulak is a smooth skating D-man who should be able to slot on a third pairing easily without hurting the cap at $1.85M signed just through 2022.

Goaltending is a tough one here. I opted to go with Chris Driedger (Florida) and Kaapo Kahkonen (Minnesota) as the tandem here, hoping at least one of them can keep up what they were able to do this past season. Driedger is a UFA, but I think he will jump at the chance to platoon with Kahkonen and win a starter’s job, rather than fighting it out with Bobrovsky (and his $10M contract through 2026) and Spencer Knight, the Panthers goalie of the future. In Minnesota, this meant passing up Carson Soucy, a serviceable D-man on the left side signed to a reasonable $2.75M through 2023. I could see Seattle grabbing Soucy, and instead taking their chances with Anthony Stolarz from Anaheim (rather than my current pick of Haydn Fleury who, at $1.3M signed for this season only before RFA, I would see them more likely moving in return for a pick or prospect). Stolarz is a cheap backup signed at $750K through 2023, had a great junior career in London, but in the 8 years since has played only sporadically in the NHL (Flyers, Oilers, and Ducks) for only 34 total games. I added Dustin Tokarski as well from the Sabres, though I could see Seattle effectively ‘passing’ on a Buffalo pick by just taking a UFA, based on what’s available.

Nick Ritchie, Connor Clifton or Curtis Lazar? I’ll end off on what’s probably the most controversial pick here - I think Seattle will go with Curtis Lazar instead of Nick Ritchie or Connor Clifton. Lazar is a cheap ($800K), useful piece who could be flipped to another team. I don’t think Ritchie will even get qualified and might end up a UFA anyway, and I’m not a big fan of Connor Clifton’s game.

What the lineup would look like

There’s an enormous hole at 1C from passing up Johansen and Duchene, but I don’t see either of them filling that role on a competitive team. I think this is where Seattle rolls the dice with Domi, or looks to take make the ever-elusive trade for a top-line pivot.

Capfriendly Page

There’s considerable flexibility beyond 2022, with only about half the roster currently signed beyond the first year. The good news is there are plenty of pending UFAs (Gaudreau, Forsberg, Hertl, Ristolainen, Seth Jones, Palat, Couturier, Perron, Giroux, Parayko, etc.) who may not be getting big raises in 2022, and with a flat salary cap. I think Seattle would be wise to plan for flexibility in being able to spend next summer, while fielding an initial team that’s still competitive.